Is Boxing Day Really the Best Trading Day of the Year? (2025)

Boxing Day has a reputation in markets that sounds almost too tidy to be true. Many traders call it the best trading day of the year because U.S. equities have often drifted higher in the session after Christmas.

The claim is not pure myth. A seasonality study from MarketWatch of the S&P 500 found that December 26 has been the most consistently positive day of the year, across instances when the market was open on that date, with an average gain of around 0.5% and a median gain of around 0.4%.

That is the "why" behind the legend. The "how," however, is where most traders get tripped up, because Boxing Day is also one of the quietest liquidity sessions of the year.

This article explores what the historical data truly reveals, why any perceived advantage may seem less clear in real-time, and what essential technical levels suggest for the session on December 26, 2025.

Key Takeaways For Traders

• Boxing Day has been unusually reliable for positive S&P 500 returns in historical samples, but the average gain has been modest.

• Liquidity is typically thin after Christmas, which can widen slippage risk and create misleading breakouts.

• The 2025 setup into Boxing Day is constructive because the S&P 500 is sitting at record levels, and volatility is low. However, narrow participation can still turn a quiet session into a sharp reversal.

What Does "Boxing Day Trading" Mean in the Market?

Market/Venue26 Dec 2025 statusWhy it mattersNYSE / NasdaqOpen (full day)Seasonal “Boxing Day” stats refer mainly to this session.London Stock ExchangeClosed (non-trading day)UK investors typically express risk via futures/FX or wait for re-open.Asia-PacificMixed, but key markets tradeAsia often takes the global lead when Europe is shut and the US is open later.

Boxing Day is December 26. In the U.S., it is not an exchange holiday, so equity markets typically reopen after Christmas, unless the date falls on a weekend.

The official exchange calendars show that Christmas Day (December 25, 2025) is closed and that the Christmas Eve session (December 24, 2025) is an early close, which sets up December 26 as the first full session after the holiday.

That matters because the "Boxing Day rally" is really a "first full session after Christmas" effect, and the psychology around reopening is a key part of the story.

Is Boxing Day Really the Best Trading Day? Historical Outlook

A seasonality review of December 26 sessions found three headline numbers that get repeated because they are easy to remember:

• The S&P 500 finished lower in just 6 of the last 39 December 26 sessions.

• Even in the down years, losses were shallow: the worst drop was capped at roughly 0.5%.

• Returns on this date have been considerably robust, featuring an average increase of approximately 0.5% and a median increase close to 0.4%, ranking among the top outcomes for calendar days.

If you translate that into a hit rate, the market was positive roughly 33 out of 39 times, which is about 85%.

The Part Traders Usually Forget to Ask

The label "best trading day" is usually about average return, not about the best opportunity.

A day that is up 0.4% on average can be great for investors and underwhelming for short-term traders, especially when:

• Spreads and slippage costs rise because depth is thin.

• Price action becomes "drift" rather than "trend," which is harder to monetise after fees.

• One program can shift the index since numerous desks are understaffed.

Thus, the answer to the question is yes, the data support the idea that Boxing Day has been unusually positive for U.S. equities. However, the data does not guarantee that Boxing Day is the easiest day to trade well.

Why Boxing Day Tends to Be Positive for Trading?

1) A "Relief Trade" After the Holiday Break

When markets reopen after Christmas, some investors cut back on hedges, adjust their risk profiles, or increase exposure they deferred during the holiday week.

This can generate a consistent offer, even if no one is pursuing it.

2) Thin Liquidity Makes the Index Easier to Push

Holiday conditions can distort normal price discovery. One multi-asset liquidity review noted that Christmas Eve and Boxing Day are historically the quietest days, with volumes in some markets running at a fraction of normal levels.

For instance, the U.S. equity session that closed early on December 24, 2025, experienced approximately 7.61 billion shares exchanged, compared to a 20-day full-session average of around 16.21 billion. It is clear evidence of how quickly liquidity thins in holiday conditions.

When liquidity is low, a slight upward trend may appear as a "pattern," since there are fewer sellers ready to oppose it.

3) Boxing Day Often Lands Inside the Santa Claus Window

The well-known "Santa Claus rally" window is defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the new year.

That seven-session stretch has historically shown a positive bias, with a long-run average around 1.3% and a high frequency of positive outcomes.

Boxing Day does not "cause" the rally, but it often sits inside the same year-end flow regime.

Are We Set for a "Boxing Day Rally" Today?

Currently, the conditions support a Boxing Day rally, but it is more likely to be a slow grind than a big breakout, because momentum is already stretched and participation tends to be light.

It is because the market has the two ingredients that usually support a Boxing Day grind higher: strong trend structure and quiet risk conditions.

Why a Boxing Day Rally Is Plausible Today

1) Trend Is Still Pointing Up

The daily trend readings remain constructive, with strong trend strength (ADX above 40) and bullish momentum signals. That usually supports a slow upward drift rather than a sudden reversal, especially during holiday sessions.

2) Volatility Is Low, Which Keeps Dip-Buying Behaviour Alive

With volatility at approximately $13.47, the market remains in a phase where minor pullbacks usually draw in buyers rather than triggering panic selling.

The Key Levels That Decide "Rally" vs "Chop"

Should a Boxing Day rally occur today, it typically manifests as price acceptance above the pivot, succeeded by a gradual move towards resistance.

A Simple Boxing Day Checklist You Can Use Today

• Bullish rally tone: Price holds above $6,982.83 for most of the first hour, volatility stays calm, and pullbacks remain shallow.

• Neutral churn tone: The price oscillates around the pivot and struggles to maintain position above resistance, frequently resulting in a range day characterised by rapid reversals.

• Bearish tone: The price drops beneath $6,970 and fails to recover, raising the likelihood of a further decline toward the $6,952 region.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Is the US Stock Market Open on Boxing Day 2025?

Yes. The U.S. exchanges are open and will operate their normal schedule.

2. Is the UK Stock Market Open on Boxing Day?

Typically no. The London Stock Exchange lists Boxing Day as a non-trading day.

3. Why Do People Say Boxing Day Is the Best Trading Day?

Boxing Day has been the most reliably positive day for the S&P 500 in studies, with strong average and median gains and relatively few down years.

4. Is the Boxing Day Rally the Same as the Santa Claus Rally?

No. Boxing Day is one session. The Santa Claus rally refers to the last five trading days of December and the first two of January. Boxing Day often falls inside that window.

5. Can Boxing Day Be Negative Despite the Historical Pattern?

Yes. Seasonality is not a guarantee. Thin liquidity can amplify both up moves and down moves, and macro surprises can override calendar tendencies.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Boxing Day has earned its reputation as a statistically positive day for the S&P 500, and the historical hit rate is hard to ignore.

However, the same holiday conditions that may boost prices can also complicate trading, as diminished participation can heighten minor fluctuations and raise execution risk.

If you are an investor, the "best day" framing is mostly a fun seasonal fact. If you are an active trader, the best day is usually the day when your setup is clean, liquidity is honest, and risk is easy to define, even if the calendar is boring.

Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.